Temple of The Roguelike Forums
Websites => Off-topic (Locked) => Topic started by: Skeletor on April 20, 2010, 10:34:07 PM
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USA foreign debt is raising a lot more than in the past.. just think about the fact that ten years ago it were 5 trillions and now it's about 12 trillion dollars.
What in your opinion could happen if America at some point can't pay off anymore its foreign debt?
Currently we see USA doing a lot of favours toward China (biggest creditor, almost 25%); import/export agreement, pollution conferences, etc.
But what will happen in 2014 when the estimated debt will be 18 trillion dollars.. and so on?
Some links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Last but not least: http://www.youtube.com/v/h7gCd-C-Tys&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1 :-)
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Value of Dollar will do down moreso, economy implode moreso, rash foreign and domestic policies enacted to try to either shift blame or gloss over things----generally speaking bad time ahead.
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I agree Brian, this could happen. If foreigners lose confidence in US$ and dump it for gold (or even Euros) a stampede effect may trigger sell offs in US stocks and bonds.. resulting in more fear of the debt to be inflated away and so on in a downward spiral.
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I have the feeling that what USA is actually doing is monetizing (and possibly overselling) the trust that foreigners (and americans, too) have in the US$.. this trust has been created by years of success and movies and books that via the global influence of american culture created the illusion of a country that can't fail.
It's all about psychology.. but this trust can't last forever.
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A2r9RSjqaUY/S5F1EruF12I/AAAAAAAAAUc/QmcWVd9redE/s400/Gordon%20Gekko.jpg)
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It's all about psychology.. but this trust can't last forever.
In fact there are a _lot_ of people here in Europe who don't like US politics at all, and who are happy that the power of USA seems to decrease.
There are also people who aren't that happy over the fact that their own culture and language in their own countries seems to be displaced by US culture.
If foreigners lose confidence in US$ and dump it for gold (or even Euros)
I like Euros. ;-)
I also like the exchange rate, because I can buy games, books etc. cheaper from US shops than here (of course, sometimes taxes are added, but still ... GOG.com and similar shops are good examples.)
But I think it is wrong to try to protect and prefer one country over the others. We need a way for common / global success, but don't ask me how.
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Currently we see USA doing a lot of favours toward China (biggest creditor, almost 25%); import/export agreement, pollution conferences, etc.
Favors towards China? The Chinese think different, it seems:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-01/30/c_13157364.htm
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(how to delete a message, didn't mean to double post)
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The Petrodollar, as it were, has been one of the driving forces that got us to this point the past several decades. Given the energy concerns, and the USA's abhorrent failure in making use of people to solve these issues, that will also come to a head.
I'm not a fan of globalization either, my preference being each country building themselves up to be robust/stable in their own right and land while trade being friendly of their excesses when possible---not this crazy notion of "Hey, let's send all jobs in this sector to X like everybody else, nevermind if that gives us less options in the future for a growing population. Sweet, delicious short term profit..."
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Currently we see USA doing a lot of favours toward China (biggest creditor, almost 25%); import/export agreement, pollution conferences, etc.
Favors towards China? The Chinese think different, it seems:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-01/30/c_13157364.htm
This is an isolated episode. It's plenty of more important things that are heavily influenced by the debt the USA owe to China (currently about 3 trillion dollars); two examples of this are the positive attitude Obama shows toward China (in his visits he never said anything about human rights violation, free speech, etc.. and let's not talk about the last pollution conference), and the fact that the USA still doesn't attack Iran (China #1 importer).
Obviously this doesn't mean that America has becomed China property.. America is just showing the good side of the medal, but at the same time is selling arms to Taiwan and constantly doing mediatic damage to China and its way of life.
Well, those are just my opinions.. global politics are something always changing and determined by many, many factors.
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and the fact that the USA still doesn't attack Iran
... and I hope that the USA will continue to avoid attacking Iran. Partly because I think this would create World War III, and partly because I have egoistic reasons, 'cause my university is just starting a cooperation with an university at Iran, and I am supposed to work in that project. In the case of war, I doubt I'll have that job any longer. :P ;)
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Many countries are taking foreign debt to keep the way of living. In US it's just bigger, but I wonder how long this situation can last. If this continues western countries are going to be really poor in 20 years.
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People think debt is hopeless 'cause they think we need to pay it all off. It's okay though, we only need to maintain a healthy debt-to-GDP ratio, though I'm guessing it's like less than half of what we have now.
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Why do you you worry? Didn't you know that Jesus said that worrying it's not gonna change anything. It's better to do as he said, not to worry about tomorrow, since each day is gonna take care of itself and God is gonna provide for you for your soul and body. Like for instance I live in one of the poorest countries of Europe, I didn't know if I'd get a job, but thanks to God that he pointed to me the things above and have faith in him. So I did get one, even if I didn't finish university, and I'm paid more that I could think of. God's gonna do the same for you all. Thanks to him for that and for freeing me from unnecessary worries.
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US debt is only that high when you go out five or ten years. Currently, we only owe about 1 trillian. But, we can reasonably go far, far beyond 13 trillian. After all, during WW2 our debt was 50%+ what our GDP was, where as 12 trillian dollars is less than 10% of our GDP today. So, we could safely go to at least 50 trillian, as we've leveraged that percentage of our GDP before with no adverse side effects. This whole thing about US debt is just a republican political tactic.
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12 trillian dollars is less than 10% of our GDP today.
In the Wikipedia page I posted before I read: "At the end of first quarter of 2010, the gross debt was 87.3% of GDP"
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I've also often been wondering what happens with countries that cannot pay the interest rates anymore.
I never heard a country lost sovereignty because of dept - so I'm pretty sure that the US won't be "sold" to China. Usually I read the creditors try to get into negotiations with the country, sometimes credits are waived altogether, sometimes payments are stopped for a time, until the country is stable enough again to pay back at least parts of the debt.
But for sure this is a very difficult state for a country to be in, because many outside people will try to get influence and control over otherwise internal affairs.
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Among other issues, and it has been awhile, but IIRC Germany was in pretty bad shape post WWI on the debt front and that surely contributed to their sad actions some years later...
That's an example of a worry for "rash" actions when such matters like debt get to insane levels.
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(http://www.ronpaul.com/images/weimar-germany-inflation-money-stove.jpg)
(http://freespeech.vo.llnwd.net/o25/pub/images/inflation.jpg)
(http://www.silver-investor.com/davidmorgancommentary/images/7-31-08-germany1923.gif)
(http://www.dialoginternational.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/09/23/wheelbarrowmutilated.jpg)
Could this happen again to the dollar?
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I don't really think so. I'd assume that politicians and finance experts learned from the past, that printing more money does not raise the wealth of a country, but only lowers the pay-power of a currency.
But, you know, forecasts are difficult, and particularly those about the future.
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That's the other screwed up part: Moreso than in the early 20th century, much of the "debt" in terms of money that physically exists someplace and is owed to one entity or another---doesn't actually exist. It is nebulous money, zeroes on a PC screen from people that rested on the key for far too long on purpose. I would reckon there is only a fraction of tangible "wealth" the world over that would count towards these kind of gigantic debt numbers.
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That's the other screwed up part: Moreso than in the early 20th century, much of the "debt" in terms of money that physically exists someplace and is owed to one entity or another---doesn't actually exist. It is nebulous money, zeroes on a PC screen from people that rested on the key for far too long on purpose. I would reckon there is only a fraction of tangible "wealth" the world over that would count towards these kind of gigantic debt numbers.
Very good point.
Sometimes I have the impression that what happened in Germany after the WWI (bankers who overprint money and buy everything from gold to propertys) is happening again in a different way.
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Why do you you worry? Didn't you know that Jesus said that worrying it's not gonna change anything. It's better to do as he said, not to worry about tomorrow, since each day is gonna take care of itself and God is gonna provide for you for your soul and body. Like for instance I live in one of the poorest countries of Europe, I didn't know if I'd get a job, but thanks to God that he pointed to me the things above and have faith in him. So I did get one, even if I didn't finish university, and I'm paid more that I could think of. God's gonna do the same for you all. Thanks to him for that and for freeing me from unnecessary worries.
I'm very happy for you.
I hope you're right. We'll see.
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Try it and see for yourselves. Of course, it's easier to believe what you see, because God is a spirit and can't be seen, but the good results of applying what Jesus said shows God exists and he is good. It's easier to do by our human nature: if you don't have something, to take it from somebody else, but you wouldn't like it if somebody took something of yours. This same way as you said Germany had tried to do, and you see the results - it was defeated, so revenge does no good. So Jesus was right about turning the other cheek, instead of hitting back.
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It's easier to do by our human nature: if you don't have something, to take it from somebody else
Europeans took a continent from native americans. I guess that was also a part of God's plan.
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I'd assume that politicians and finance experts learned from the past, that printing more money does not raise the wealth of a country, but only lowers the pay-power of a currency.
Politicians never learn from anything. Their own egos and preconceived notions come first, and scientific, historical, or statistical evidence are at best a distant second. There are almost no exceptions to this.
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It's easier to do by our human nature: if you don't have something, to take it from somebody else
Europeans took a continent from native americans. I guess that was also a part of God's plan.
Even if the Israel's people were chosen by God, they did turn away from God more than once, so their actions did produce the expected results from God's anger. Their land was conquered, while they were made slaves in foreign lands. Everybody is responsible for their questions before God. If I kill or steal and say God told me so, I'm lying since God's command was not to kill nor steal, it's also written that whoever raises the sword, will perish by it, and whoever makes captives, will be made captive. The nation that doesn't obey God, will destroy itself, because if they don't do as God commanded, it doesn't mean consequences wouldn't affect them, be it through other such people or natural disasters. A nation where at least 10 people obey God, will live longer than one that has none, remember Sodom and Gomorrha. If the indians follow God more than the descendants of european immigrants, surely God will return the Americas to them. But if in front of christians they pray to God, but at home to idols or minor spirits of their ancestors, surely their fate will be worse than that of Haiti.
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If the indians follow God more than the descendants of european immigrants, surely God will return the Americas to them.
I really like people who are too dumb to understand how dumb they can get, like you just did. It really proves that there is no God.
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Haven't you heard what John the baptist told to pharisees coming to him:
"...O generation of vipers, who hath warned you to flee from the wrath to come?
Bring forth therefore fruits meet for repentance:
And think not to say within yourselves, We have Abraham to our father: for I say unto you, that God is able of these stones to raise up children unto Abraham."
Same thing about the quote you pointed and any nation.
And why do you like dumb people? You seem to like to prove that there is no God, what gain do you have in it? Other than not having bad deeds being uncovered I don't understand. But know that God is full of grace and can forgive any sin, except intentional blasphemy. In preaching I have my gain in forgiveness of sins and eternal life in God's kingdom, though God decides who will enter it. Can't God make dumb people believe and be saved? He made a donkey speak against a false prophet.
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Come on, Krice. You know better than to feed the trolls.