Vanguard: I've only used smithing successfully in two ways.
1) get enough smithing to use the guaranteed forge on level 2 - cloak, shield, whatever - to make up for what i haven't found yet.
2) mid game, bank XP. there is no reason to allocate 8000XP when you are at full HP by yourself. if you end up getting ambushed, allocate your XP to combat stuff and make the best of it. if instead you find an enchanted or artifact forge, smith yourself a ring of speed! this way you risk very little by attempting to create a smith if it turns out to be impractical.