I think an important advice for implementing npc intelligence, is to try and keep things as simple as possible. It's easy to get caught up in very subtle implementations, that the player won't experience as enrichening. Ie. something like: "Orcs have a greed value of 75, as opposed to farmers' greed value of 25, making orcs exponentially more likely to pick up gold." If, on the other hand, farmers never go for gold, and orcs always do, it gives the player a much clearer illusion of personality and intelligence. I think this was epitomized by a debate on rgrd, about wand wielding monsters. Posters were discussing how to calculate cost/gain ratios etc., when Jeff Lait said that in POWDER, if a tool capable monster is carrying a wand, there's simply a fixed probability of it zapping the wand.
The best place to start is probably to have a more or less clear idea of what you want your npcs to be able to do, and try to tailor a system to meet your needs without becoming unnecessarily complex. Your idea of a point-driven system sounds like it may work. I think Incursion uses something like this, combining it with a "gravitational value", so that closer foes attract more than foes that are further away. This should probably help circumvent erratic monsters.
And, even though I'm sure you already read Bear's article series on AI, I think it's so enlightening that it cannot be linked to enough:
http://roguebasin.roguelikedevelopment.org/index.php?title=Roguelike_IntelligenceFor my own project, I'm currently using a statemachine, something like what Bear describes. Put briefly, a monster is always in a certain state of mind towards a certain target. Each state contains a set of switches. The basic offensive state is something like: if can_attack: attack ; else if can_approach: approach. Switches can even point to new states, so that a casual state (the one where orcs pick up gold and farmers cultivate a garden) can contain switches to enter a combat state if an enemy comes into sight. I find it slightly messy to use (no doubt owing to my implementation), but it does mean I can make monsters do mostly anything: lock a door, sound an alarm, pray at an altar, eat some carrion ...
As always,
Minotauros